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    Entries in MWC (4)

    Wednesday
    Feb242010

    Mobile World Congress "Debriefing" Session

    A few days after the Mobile World Congress, it is time for reflections and conclusions. We figured the best way to reflect on this event would be to have a proper debriefing session.

    We invited key execs from about twenty of Israel's leading mobile companies and several members of Cisco's corporate development group who visited Israel after the MWC, to discuss some of the main takeaways from the event.

    2009, as one guest commented, "separated the men from the boys". The industry may have suffered, but survivors are more fit to face the challenges and opportunities in 2010 and on. Alex Yu, head of wireless in Cisco's corporate development, mentioned that 2009 was the year in which mobile data traffic exceeded voice packets, never to look back.

    There was no argument about the key part played by apps and the app model in this year's show, but there was less unanimity around the identity of the winners. Some claimed that the operators are deemed to become a dumb pipe (and may have already conceded), while others were adamant that carriers are still better positioned than the Internet players to monetize on the mobile data revolution, leveraging their billing relationships, their data and their infrastructure. In any case, commented Lak Ananth from Cisco, the value chain is disintegrating.

    Who knows the end user better? Is it the carrier, holding all the demographic and location data (but often not on prepaid users), or the Internet giant who can serve pretty good location-aware ads and services even today? Again, there was no consensus but it's clear that Google are - despite their offer for a truce - a competitor more than an ally to the mobile operators.

    Android is emerging as the big winner of the 2010 MWC. The good buzz generated around the operating system is complemented by a convenient development platform and a buoyant developer ecosystem. The next battle-ground is around owning the user experience, and Google has certainly done a great job in catching up with the Apple UX, at least from the developer's point of view. And how about Symbian? “Symbian is a great operating system for making a mobile phone work; Android is a great operating system for a making a cool device”, said one participant.

    China is clearly an emerging power in the mobile infrastructure realm, and will soon leave some of the handset guys behind. A lively (though slightly bleak) discussion revolved around Israel's ability to compete with the Chinese economies of scale with innovation and agility. Alex Yu mentioned a few Taiwanese vendors who made it big in China in areas you'd expect mainland corporates to dominate. Is innovation enough? Clearly there's more to succeeding in the new cut-throat reality. Even corporates like Microsoft and Cisco are finding it harder to justify the excess expenditure on an Israeli development center. Identifying gaps and addressing them quickly is a means of survival, but will it yield large companies?

    Several other topics were raised and discussed, but we were far from done. If you took part in the round-table, please take a minute to fill the survey. Whether you were present or not, feel free to share your MWC takeaways and insights!

    Wednesday
    Feb172010

    Mobile World Congress Day Three - Experiments

    While there is consensus around 'not a lot' as a description for what's happening in MWC this week, one thing is happening - experiments.

    Google has given away thousands of Nexus One phones to attendees of its Android Developer Workshop. (Guess how many Israelis became Android developers for half an hour to get one...). Multiply by whichever number you decide, it is a significant marketing expenditure.

    O2 and Samsung are trialing NFC - Near Field Communication. Hundreds of phones with NFC chips have been given to customers, each phone loaded with 75 Euros. All the restaurants and cafes on the show have NFC readers. So much for 'no free lunch'...

    Nokia has been experimenting with playing Apple - not showing up for what used to be its major event of the year. There are Nokia people around, but no booth and almost no handset announcements. Not sure if THAT would turn them into Apple. I did get to see the new Nokia Booklet, a notebook, and it's sleek. Nevertheless, will you pay 600 dollars or more for 1.2Kg of notebook, just because it bears the Nokia brand?

    And finally, the biggest experiment of all. Can you have a global mobile conference with almost no Chinese visitors? That's what you get when you schedule this major event for the Chinese New Year celebration. If it wasn't sad it could have been funny.

    Tuesday
    Feb162010

    Mobile World Congress Day Two - When the "Go'yim" Get Tough

    It appears that the biblical proverb "There is nothing new under the sun" (Kohelet/Ecclesiastes 1:9) holds true even when it rains. Not a lot of news, certainly nothing exciting.

    "No news is good news" is not a biblical proverb, but if you came to MWC to do networking (personal, not Layer 3) it is also true. No news means you can network with people more effectively. The Network Equipment Providers (NEPs) are certainly open to discussing their newest, yet to be proven strategies for regaining the leadership in a market now dominated by the Chinese.

    As one corporate executive from a leading NEP told us, "we can compete effectively on pricing with the Chinese vendors, since we also design and manufacture in China". So what is that NEP up to? Services. A large chink of their revenue is now attributed to network services - and apparently margins are not bad, as everything is automated and centralized.

    Yes, there are emerging businesses and business models, but operators are still early in discovery phases. Our conversation with that particular executive soon took a sharp left turn.

    Israeli innovation is not enough, says our friend (who knows a thing or two about Israelis and innovation, being on that side before being acquired into the NEP). Without proper execution - even before effective marketing, just pure execution - it will be hard to sustain a climate in which global players and investors prefer Israeli innovation over India, China or Eastern Europe. If Israeli companies cannot deliver on their innovation, Israeli startups may lose its advantage over their developing countries' peers. To an extent, he continues, this is already happening.

    What can we do to withstand this trend? Plenty. Focus on market needs and customer pains, not on technology innovation. Focus on product and productization, not hand-stitched innovative alpha versions. Learn to pitch the ROI and value, not the technology. Not very hard, and yet very hard for the average Israeli entrepreneur. Business education in Israel is lacking, and the results are evident.

    I'm sure there's a flip side to this story. Many Israeli companies deliver and excel. Nevertheless, it is our role as 'industrialists' to make sure our brain-power does not get lost in translation. When the Go'yim get tough, the tough guys from Israel should mobilize. There is room for improvement in the way investors (institutional as well as private) work with the companies they are investing in. But it also takes acknowledgement and willingness to learn and improve on part of the entrepreneurs. If we want to maintain our leadership in the communication space, we need to act quickly.

    Tuesday
    Feb162010

    Mobile World Congress Day One Takeaways

    In basketball or football games, one must not try to summarize after the first quarter.

    Trade shows are not sports events, so I think it's not too early to draw some conclusions after one quarter of a show.

    Here are some of my notes after day 1. Yossi and I met three operators, several vendors and quite a few startups. The following observations are not in order of importance (or any order at all):

    • Underwhelming is one word that comes to mind. There's definitely a rebound from last year's low, but that's mostly a psychological observation. People are more energized, however there is not enough new or exciting stuff to merit the renewed enthusiasm.
    • The weather is more gloomy than last year, which actually works in favor of indoor events - the show itself as well as receptions and cocktails. People prefer the isles and halls over the Ramblas and stores.
    • Everybody, maybe excluding the Chinese vendors, is clueless. Operators, handset manufacturers, infrastructure providers and integrators are all trying to figure out new revenue sources (or just sustaining their existing revenue sources). Very few have decisive answers, and even those are likely wrong or overly optimistic.
    • The new generation of handsets is cool. Way cool. But Samsung is not Apple. Riding a user-adoption wave to coerce the operators into an iPhone-like model is deemed to fail when you don't have the zealous consumer tail-wind. Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, Nokia, RIM and the rest will have a hard time monetizing their app stores (and no, dear Samsung demo guy, 'credit card' is not an answer).
    • The trusted billing relationship with the consumer is still the operators' biggest asset. Since they are not making money off apps, they may elect to open their network to app developers in the form of APIs. Still, monetizing API usage (on the long tail) will be hard.
    • Lots of cool startups with iffy business models. I will do my best to meet more startups and hopefully find the ones that can make a lot of money in a sustainable fashion. Haven't seen any on day 1.
    • The Chinese vendors, namely Huawei and ZTE, will dominate the telecom infrastructure market (if they don't already). Trying to innovate on the hardware side as a startup is very bold and very risky. Is it VC-type risk? Not sure.

    Again, this is just the first quarter. I reserve the right to change my mind (though I doubt I will). Feel free to prove me wrong, otherwise the next three days may not be very interesting...